1.6 FORECASTS.... They dont like Hazleton

Attracting a substantial regional hub will prove difficult given the integrated
carriers have mature hub-andspoke air networks for North America.

What am I paying you for? I want good news

Hazleton’s best prospective hope for an integrator’s regional hub is UPS,
which has its closest hub at Philadelphia International Airport and a smaller
regional hub at Bradley International Airport in Hartford, CN.

While UPS has registered the likelihood of its leaving PHL as 2% or less, in subsequent discussions, the developers have suggested a potential tenant with the order of magnitude of an integrator is already considering using the proposed all cargo airport.

Does this mean we have as good odds as winning roulette?

the Consultant would project the most likely forecast for Hazleton in terms of air cargo tonnage is zero – the unsuccessful track.

YOUR FIRED

Ok im going to skip the next part (the big numbers) until I have time to play with excel and see if I can get some Hazleton data out of it.

1.7 AIR CARGO MARKET CONCLUSIONS

2 conclusions for the airport....

Fail miserably

Or attract a carrier...

(FedEx specifically registered no interest in the Hazleton development, DHL noted italready has a hub in Wilmington, OH and is paying for a vacant hub in Cincinnati, while representatives of UPS gauged likelihood its regional hub would leave PHL as 2% or less.)

that can get in 5 to 6 carriers and we have success

1.5 REGIONAL AIRPORTS, We can take Philly

Summary... Growth is modest in the Cargo Airport Sector, NYC area is untouchable, Ohio is a Juggernaut, but Philly can be beaten. What about Allentown and Erie?

The highest growth was achieved by two airports dominated by UPS: regional hub
Philadelphia which grew by just under 24% in total for the ten-year period
and UPS mini-hub Bradley which grew by slightly more than 32% for the same
period. Based almost entirely on growth by belly carriers operating
international flights, Washington Dulles experienced almost 16% growth. When
growth is annualized for the 10-year period, the rates are tellingly modest
for all three airports.

Basically only Hub centers will increase in the cargo airport industry.

Foreign carriers increasingly expanded to other major hubs such as Atlanta,
Dallas and Houston but did not venture into non-traditional gateways

.

Hazleton has little chance of getting Foreign traffic.

1.5.2 Carrier Composition

Philadelphia International Airport (PHL)

The current master plan alternatives are proposing a new parallel runway that would eliminate the current location of the UPS facility requiring UPS to move to a new site on the Airport.

HAZLETON + UPS = Fun for the whole family.

JFK

40% of total cargo presently carried in bellies of passenger aircraft is largely untouchable.
35% carried in freighters operated by passenger carriers would require a very difficult splitting of operations. 90% of cargo presently moving through JFK is somewhat beholden to the network established there.

Looks like we cannot steal any cargo from NYC

The PANYNJ identified Stewart as ‘heir apparent’ but may find convincing carriers and forwarders to leave the traditional gateway difficult.

Cargo from NYC is controlled by a monopoly..... BOOOOOO

1.4 Mostly ALL-CARGO AIRPORTS, HAZLETON CAN DO IT JUST LIKE OHIO

1.4 ALL-CARGO AIRPORTS

While all-cargo airports lack any scheduled passenger service, cargo-intensive airports are secondary passenger airports that have attracted regional cargo hub operations.

Ok, so why the hell is it called ALL-CARGO airport. lets call it mostly-cargo airport now.

Most significantly, the failures have often been positioned as al ternat ives to airports that don’t necessarily need alternatives. As long as sufficient capacity remains for the planning horizon, it will almost always be preferable to operate at a major commercial airport than at a start-up all-cargo airport.

Someone sounds bitter.... poor Hazleton hopes are sinking fast

So skimming through the rest of the chapter (seriously I want proof that these things are true) I come to the conclusion like the last 2 chapters... Its a very bad idea that Hazleton should get a cargo airport. I do suggest if your the Standard Speaker you publish WORD FOR WORD the stuff about Columbus Rickenbacker International (LCK). (Stupid Ohio, sorry but they got all the cargo airports)

1.4.2 Rickenbacker International Airport (LCK)

Columbus, Ohio’s Rickenbacker International Airport is a relatively successful example of military base conversion into an all-cargo airport. Unlike less successful efforts, LCK has the enthusiastic support of the Columbus Regional Airport Authority, which operates both LCK and Port Columbus International Airport (CMH) and has pushed cargo operations to LCK. In 2006 LCK ranked #46 in cargo.

LCK has both benefited from and contributed to collateral industrial growth that would have been inconceivable at relatively land-locked CMH. LCK serves a tremendous local industrial base and is located within the Ohio Valley where it can be used for regional distribution.

LCK’s origin as a former AFB left a superior airfield and infrastructure, including twin 12,000 ft. runways and a Category II Landing System for all-weather operating capabilities. LCK was closed as an Air Force Base in 1980 and its first success came in 1985 when Flying Tigers (acquired in 1989 by FedEx to whom its hub operation was transferred) established its air cargo hub and bulk sorting facility there. Success for the surrounding Rickenbacker Industrial Park came later with the 1992 opening of the Spiegel/Eddie Bauer and Siemens distribution centers.

In March 2008, Norfolk Southern (NS) Railroad opened a $63 million intermodal (truck-rail) facility on 175 acres at Rickenbacker. As with Alliance in the previous example, teaming the airport and rail yard provides access to the most time-effective but expensive option (air) and much less costly but also less timely rail service. NS invested $20 million of the total project cost with the balance from local government.

Both a cause-and-effect of the transportation services available at Rickenbacker, the larger area encompasses 30 million sq. ft. of development, 13 industrial parks and more than 100 companies, including several Fortune 500 corporations. The global distribution center for the Gap, Inc. accounts for a substantial seasonal chartered freighter operation. Much of the development at Rickenbacker has been through private investment accounting for 11 million sq. ft. of development at the airport and even more in the 15,000 acres beyond. Rickenbacker partnered with Duke Realty to develop its Global Logistics Park - 1,600 acres of airport land identified as not necessary for aviation purposes. The site will accommodate distribution and light manufacturing primarily spurred by the NS intermodal facility.

The Rickenbacker Air Cargo Terminal complex is comprised of three multi-tenant air cargo terminal buildings with 164,000 square feet of space and direct airside access. As of July 2007, the three buildings had total occupancy of only 56%. The FedEx regional hub is in its own dedicated facility with 275,000 sq. ft. originally developed for Flying Tigers in 1989. In September 2006, Forward Air expanded its trucking hub from 61,000 to 125,000 sq. ft. airside facility serving non-integrated all-cargo airlines and freight forwarders. FedEx accounted for 61% and UPS for 13% of 2007 air cargo tonnage through the airport. Chartered flights According to a recent6 article in Airport Business, Franklin County taxpayers have invested $1 15 million in
LCK since 1981 and the airport is forecasted to operate at a loss until 2012 – although in 1987, LCK managers predicted the airport would break even by 2002. Since the Columbus Regional Airport Authority.

took over, the annual operating deficit decreased from $2 million in 2003 to its best year in 2006 with a deficit of $154,952. Since Franklin County taxpayers began funding LCK in 1981, the annual contribution averaged more than $4.3 million, peaking at $8 million in 2000.

1.3 Cargo Airport Industry Poorly Explained.

1.3 THE AIR CARGO INDUSTRY: COMPONENTS

A number of allied service providers – ground-handlers to name but one – are critical to the air cargo industry, but capacity is provided by direct carriers (passenger & all-cargo airlines) and procured largely by indirect carriers (freight forwarders). Trucking companies also are critical - both as complements and substitutes.

So we need companies to move cargo.... wow, how insightful

1.3.1 Integrators

integrator applies to entities operating multiple transportation modes with proprietary resources

This definition is so insightful how about
dictonary.com....
integator= a person or thing that integrates.
integrates= To make into a whole by bringing all parts together; unify.
So an integrator according to dictonary.com is A thing that makes into a whole by bringing all parts together

As will be explored in the all-cargo airports section, the integrators are also important because they – alone – possess the scale of operations and internal resources (trucking and ground-handling, among them) to sustain operations at all-cargo airports, absent the ability to pool capacity and costs with other carriers.

So integrators rule the CARGO AIRPORT INDUSTRY. Sorry Hazleton you lost this round.

1.3.1.1 United Parcel Service Co. (UPS)

Its principal service area is Maine, New Hampshire, Maryland, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Vermont.... Interviewed for this study, UPS indicated it could marginally expand its BDL operations to serve more of the Northeast domestic market if constrained at PHL.

So Philly, I hope that's what PHL means is the Hub of the NorthEast. Does marginally mean we get to have UPS come to Hazleton. AWESOME!!!! So you would think they would tell us who they talked to... I hope it was the UPS driver that drives the West Hazleton route.

1.3.1.2 FedEx

In December 2007, FedEx Ground selected Perrysburg Township, OH as the location of a new hub to replace its existing Toledo operation.

Your going down Perrysburg Township, OH. Someone send them some anthracite coal for christmas,

The FedEx hub at Newark employs more than 2,500 FedEx Express employees in three buildings, comprising approximately 2 million sq. ft. FedEx operates more than 1,200 monthly flights at the EWR hub with connectivity to domestic and international markets.

Newark, we can steal that. Come on Lou Barletta FedEx is ours.

1.3.1.3 DHL

D H L closed its own former hub at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, consolidating operations at the former Airborne hub in Wilmington, OH.

Ohio.... land of many cargo airports dreams and cavier wishes

In May 2007, DHL completed the $120 million upgrading and sort automation of its major east coast ground hub in Allentown, PA, complementing its air hubs in Wilmington, OH and Riverside, CA.

Allentown, you think they would have forseen Hazleton's cargo airport.

Looks like Hazleton started planning a few years to late. Stupid Ohio, Allentown, Philly, and Newark.

1.3.2 All-Cargo Airlines

Traditional all-cargo airlines offer airport-to-airport transport of heavy freight by one of two business models. Too many exist to cover each carrier but an example of each principal business model is provided.

Thank you, now I can skip the next page or two. Now to the end...

While some proclaim otherwise given the lack of passenger priorities, one could argue that all-cargo airlines are the least independent segment of the air cargo industry. ACMI operators repeatedly observe they simply operate the aircraft between points requested by their airline and forwarder clientele. Scheduled operators largely say the same about forwarders and large industrial shippers.

Great citation job by the way. So basicly were creating a monopoly in our backyard if we build a cargo airport only airport... im ok with that.

1.3.3 Passenger & Combination Carriers

While domestically it has dwindled greatly, belly-space still accounts for a significant percentage of international capacity. The ability to access that capacity, as well as the additional frequencies and destinations provided by passenger carriers, fortifies traditional passenger hubs as cargo gateways relied upon by freight forwarders.

Thats a bunch of Bull Crap.... where's your source.... o yeah thats right you dont need any. Poor Hazleton.

1.3.4 Freight Forwarders

As in the contraction of competing integrators, airports and their communities are left with fewer options in trying to partner with freight forwarders to develop potential new gateways – international or otherwise.

Im confused, what the heck is a Freight Forwarder and why are communities 'up the creek without a paddle' when they get one?

THE END... what did we learn from this.... Cargo Airports located in mostly Ohio (stupid ohio) are operated by one company and they like to put stuff in the belly of passenger airplanes. O and FED EX IS OURS PERRYVILLE TOWNSHIP.... Your going down.

Chapter 1.2 Summary: Cargo Airports are a bad investment

CHAPTER 1
PROPOSED AIR CARGO AIRPORT MARKET ANALYSIS

1.1 INTRODUCTION

"This study’s sponsors"

THATS ME THATS ME, IM A TAX PAYER

1.2 THE AIR CARGO INDUSTRY: CONDITION

They wrote...

"As detailed in the forecasts, the more mature US market no longer produces growth rates comparable to those of burgeoning markets. These disparities have implications for the US market in that investment – both in aircraft and in facilities – is more likely to chase high-growth markets."

What forecasts... is Hazleton in a high-growth market?
Paragraph winner... Not Hazleton

"The slowing US air cargo industry is not only relative (to faster-growing economies) but also indicative of internal forces. With UPS and FedEx as the two largest trucking companies in the US, the forces most responsible for air cargo growth in previous decades have been instrumental in diverting traditional air cargo shipments to trucks since 2000."

That sounds bad for Hazleton. Where is their source? I like there citation style aka THERE ARE NONE
Paragraph winner... Not Hazleton

OOoooo I found their source:

"1 The Pennsylvania Air Cargo Study completed by Wilbur Smith Associates for the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and the more recent Tri-County Cargo Airport Feasibility Study prepared for Luzerne County by the LPA Group in February 2005."

The study they are evaluating.... awesome.

"Meanwhile, US passenger carriers conceded huge blocks of domestic market share,
reducing capacity through eliminating frequencies and transitioning to regional
jets. In addition, the US Postal Service prioritized trucking (reducing rates so
greatly legacy carriers have opted out of contract renewals) and offered service
contracts leveraging lift from FedEx and other all-cargo carriers."

I think their getting their information from there local UPS guy, seriously I love the fact that they refuse to cite their sources. This paragraph is also making the cargo airport look bad.
Paragraph winner... Not Hazleton

"According to the FAA, market share of belly carriers for domestic shipments
fell from 41% to 29% between 2000 and 2006. Cargo ton-miles for passenger
carriers dropped 26.9% for belly carriers, while rising for all cargo carriers
by 22%. Market share was merely transferred rather than growing the industry.
Short of an all out security ban on belly cargo, industry observers question
whether any further erosion of belly carriers’ domestic market share is even
possible."

So skipping ahead, I promised not to, they forget the Bibliography. How can you forget the Bibliography.. maybe they left it on Broad Street. Anyhow, you would think they could put in something good about Hazleton, like they have toy airplanes for sale at Walmart.

Paragraph winner... Not Hazleton

Trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific volumes - thought ‘safe’ due to inherent
protection from trucking as a substitute – also have become vulnerable to modal
diversions. Traditionally growing faster (often at amultiple) than world trade,
the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that trade grew 7.5%
in 2007, while globally air cargo by only 4.0%. Seaborne freight grew more than
twice as much. Especially with unprecedented fuel prices reflected in ‘landed
costs’ of shipments, buyers are increasingly willing to trade time for cost in
favoring slower ocean shipping.

Yay, they talk about cheap Chinese goods. Sounds like they like to send them to places with cheap costs... stupid ocean shipping... you spoil everything.
On a side note what is "amultiple" is it something more than one?
Paragraph winner... Hazleton :) and any place that has a port :(

Skipping the next 2 paragraphs. Awesome job putting facts before telling us the point.

"All this consolidation has rendered much bigger but far fewer prospects for airports and their communities. Among carriers, telling evidence of a ‘market correction’ is that so much capacity has been excised – not only the Emery and much of the BAX fleet but US all-cargo airline Kitty Hawk which recently folded – yet lift availability has generally remained sufficient. Consolidation has also led to an inventory of redundant facilities, including not only former hubs of DHL, Emery and Kitty Hawk in the Ohio Valley but also “spoke” stations at secondary airports across the country."

:( Hazleton
Paragraph winner... A wandering writer and obviously not Hazleton

WINNER: NOT HAZLETON

LOSER: Whoever paid for this study... oh thats right, it was me.

The first 10 pages... don't bother reading

Page 1-7
Title Page, Table of Contents, ect.

8
BACKGROUND
Summary... People DEMAND to know why you want to spend 1.6 billion on a cargo airport.

8-9
PROJECT DESCRIPTION
Summary...

The development of the Hazleton Cargo Airport has been proposed by Gladstone Partners, LP (Developer).

9-10
REPORT OVERVIEW
That would be cheating, you have to read the report first.

Cargo Airport Study link

The report for the cargo airport study is found here:



http://lbfc.legis.state.pa.us/